Description
PART 1 ? WHY RISK ASSESSMENT Chapter 1 ? Understanding Risk Assessement 1.1 The Target Risks 1.2 The Quantitative Definition of Risk 1.3 The Meaning of Quantification 1.4 Form of the Results of a Quantitative Risk Assessment 1.5 References Chapter 2 ? Analytical Foundations of Quantitative Risk Assessment 2.1 Quantitative Definition of Risk 2.2 The Scenario Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment 2.3 Interpretation of Probability and Likelihood 2.4 Quantification of the Scenarios 2.5 Assembling the Results 2.6 References Chapter 3 ? The Rational Management of Catastrophic Risks 3.1 Benefits of Quantitative Risk Assessment 3.2 The Role of the Case Studies 3.3 Comparing Quantitative Risks Using the Case Studies 3.4 Observations from the Case Studies 3.5 Insights from Comparing Results 3.6 Where Do We Go from Here? References PART 2 ? Risk Assessment Case Studies Chapter 3 ? Risk of a Catastrophic Hurricane in 3.1 Summary of the Risk Assessment of a Catastrophic Hurricane Impacting New Orleans, Louisiana 3.2 Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 2004) 3.3 Commentary on the New Orleans Hurricane Risk 3.4 Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 1950) 3.5 References Chapter 4- Risk Assessment Nuclear Power 4.1 Calculating Likelihoods 4.2 Structuring the Scenarios 4.3 Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment 4.4 Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story 4.5 An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results 4.6 References PART 3 ? WORK IN PROGRESS AND FUTURE APPLICATIONS Chapter 5 ? Terrorist Attack on the National Electrical Grid 5.1 Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis 5.2 A Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Specific Terrorist Attack 5.3 References Chapter 6 ? Abrupt Climate Change 6.1 Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis 6.2 Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of Abrupt Climate Change 6.3 Illustration of Bayesian Analyses for Warming Rates 6.4 References 8.7 APPENDICES Appendix A ? Roots of Quantitative Risk Assessment with an Example A.1 Calculating Likelihoods A.2 Structuring the Scenarios A.3 Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment A.4 Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story A.5 An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results A.6 References Appendix B ? Quantification of Hurricane Risk Supporting Evidence Appendix C ? Quantification of Asteroid Risk Supporting Evidence
